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FDIC Outlook Opportunities and Risks Facing Community Lenders That Support International Trade The role of international trade in the U.S. economy is increasing. And although smaller firms (those with less than 500 employees) accounted for almost one-third of U.S. exports in 2001, they are continually challenged to obtain financing to produce export goods or to finance the sale of exports. This circumstance presents opportunities for community banks that are looking for ways to increase small business fee income and strengthen loan demand. This article looks at those opportunities as well as the risks facing community lenders in supporting small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) engaged in international trade. Small and Mid-Sized Firms Play a Significant Role in U.S.
Exports
In 2001, SMEs accounted for $182 billion, or 30 percent, of U.S. export sales, a percentage that has held fairly constant since 1992.2 But in some states the share was notably higher—for instance, SMEs in Wyoming accounted for 80 percent of that state’s exports. In eight other states, including populous New York and Florida, they accounted for 40 percent or more of exports. (See the box entitled “A Regional Look at U.S. Export Activity” for information on merchandise exports.) Lack of Overseas Affiliates and Foreign Market Expertise
Creates Challenges for SMEs Chart 1
Two reasons that explain why smaller businesses choose to export to a
single country are the absence of major affiliates abroad and a lack of
familiarity with foreign markets.4 SMEs have,
in fact, benefited from this concentration when their primary export countries
have been the target of U.S. initiatives to reduce foreign barriers to
U.S. exports. For example, the 1993 enactment of the North American Free
Trade Agreement helped spur growth in U.S. exports to Canada and Mexico,
and from 1992 to 2001 the share of U.S. SME exports to Canada and Mexico
increased from 24 percent to 33 percent.
A Regional Look at U.S. Export Activity
Map 1
Chart 2
The major 2004 exports for each of the U.S. Census divisions are as follows: Pacific (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington). The Pacific Division’s lead exports were computers and electronics as well as transportation equipment (mainly aircraft). The division’s relatively strong high-technology and aerospace sectors along with their many high-value-added, high-paying jobs generated half of the total value of its exports. In addition, the Pacific Division exported a large dollar volume of crops and processed foods, chemical and machinery manufactures, electrical equipment, and fabricated metals. West South Central (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas). Because of its location, the West South Central Division is a leading exporter of petroleum and coal products (nearly two-thirds of the nation’s total last year) and chemical manufactures. Agricultural and livestock products were also major exports. As home to several high-tech centers such as Austin, Dallas, and Houston, large-dollar export items included computers, software, and telecommunications equipment. East North Central (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin). In the heavily industrialized East North Central Division, transportation equipment (primarily motor vehicles) accounted for nearly a third of total exports. Because of the division’s large industrial base, machinery, electrical equipment, fabricated metals, and plastics and rubber products were also leading exports. Middle Atlantic (New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania). The Middle Atlantic Division’s leading exports were chemical manufactures and computer and electronic products. It also contributed a high share (twice the national average) of printing products and primary metal exports. South Atlantic (Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). The South Atlantic Division is undergoing a major transformation. Traditional export mainstays in nondurable goods manufacturing (apparel and textiles and wood and paper products) are facing mounting pressure from overseas competitors, particularly China. Replacing these exports in importance are the transportation equipment and high-technology industries (computers and electronics), which accounted for over one-third of the division’s total exports. New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont). Nearly a third of all New England exports were computer and electronic products, and another third of exports consisted of chemical and machinery manufactures and transportation equipment. East South Central (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee). The East South Central Division exports a broad range of nondurable manufactured goods, including wood and furniture products, apparel and leather products, and printing and paper products. Also, the migration of automobile production from the higher-cost Midwest to the relatively lower-cost Southeast has increased the division’s exports of transportation equipment and plastic and rubber products. West North Central (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota). As it encompasses a large number of farm states, the West North Central Division was a leading exporter of crop production and processed foods. It was also a major exporter of transportation equipment, computers and electronics, machinery, and chemical manufactures. Mountain (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wyoming). Although the Mountain Division’s share of total U.S. exports was the smallest (4.1 percent) of the nine Census divisions, it accounted for the highest relative share of computer and electronic product exports than anywhere in the country. In fact, 42 percent of its exports were computers and electronics, followed by transportation equipment (10 percent) and primary metal manufactures (9 percent). SME Manufacturers Account for More Than One-Third of All
SME Exports Chart 3
Emerging Opportunities for Community Banks
Despite the low number of banks currently involved in global trade, more
community banks are becoming interested in pursuing the matter. Some reasons
include growth in their potential customer base, a nearby large bank’s
departure from the business line, an increase in experienced international
managers due to the consolidation of larger institutions, and growing
demand for trade finance services. Indeed, smaller institutions are now
offering many business lines, services, and products once thought to be
in the realm of large banks. In the Pacific Northwest, for example, financial
institutions such as Banner Bank, Columbia Banking System, Inc., Washington
Trust Bank, and Sterling Financial Corporation are reported to have either
started or expanded international banking departments to serve that area’s
rapidly growing Asian population.8 Some of
the services that community banks are beginning to offer include issuing
international letters of credit, providing trade financing loans, and
facilitating or executing foreign currency transactions and wire transfers.
Technology Enables SMEs and Smaller Financial Institutions
to Enter Global Markets
Ways for Community Lenders to Gain Global Trade Expertise
According to a recent report, a few lenders with assets of less than
$1 billion are considering offering trade finance services in-house, and
several FDIC-insured institutions with assets of between $2.5 billion
and $7 billion are already offering international services.11
In fact, banks and thrifts that provide international financing for their
customers range in size from small to very large, as illustrated by the
asset distribution of financial institutions that participate in the SBA
Trade Finance Program (see Chart 4).12 This
program helps small businesses enter export markets by providing such
services as trade counseling, training, legal assistance, and export information.
Chart 4
The SBA and the Export-Import Bank of the United States offer other programs
(for example, the Export Working Capital Program) that provide financing
assistance to SMEs and help lower the risks of international banking transactions
by guaranteeing commercial loans.13 The SBA
also offers an Internet-based service called Export Express to help bankers
assess overseas credit risk and structure their loans so that they meet
the government approval process.
Immigration Trends Bolster Export Business and Lending Opportunities
Community banks are taking notice of these expanding populations and
their financial potential. Asia and Latin America are two of the world’s
largest emerging markets, and banks that specialize in foreign-trade financing
are often located in gateway states that host these large immigrant populations.
According to one report, community banks, particularly those in states
that trade heavily and cater to Hispanic- and Asian-Americans such as
Florida and California, find that “providing working capital or
letters of credit is crucial to maintaining relationships with small business
customers.”16
The 1997 economic census on minority-owned businesses (the most recent
available) showed immigrants to be highly entrepreneurial, with Asian
and Hispanic small businesses growing four times faster than the rate
of U.S. firms overall. Not surprisingly, then, traditional and new immigrant
gateways, where many Asian and Hispanic people live and set up small businesses,
often coincide with global gateways, where many of these ethnic small
businesses engage in export activity (see Map 2).17
Map 2
Lending to SMEs Engaged in Global Trade Has Unique Risks
To successfully conduct international trade-related business, lenders
must consider not only traditional credit, operational,
and management risks when establishing a relationship with potential
customers, but also factors specific to global activity, such as political,
foreign exchange, offshore-outsourcing, and import
competition risks. And when banking relationships cross international
borders, even traditional risk areas can be harder to understand, monitor,
and manage. These international banking risks are discussed below.
Credit Risk.
Unlike lending
to domestic companies, trade finance lenders face legal and cultural issues
that make it more difficult to adequately assess the risk of extending
credit to foreign borrowers. To some extent, lenders can mitigate this
risk by using institutions that will guarantee the loan (e.g., Export-Import
Bank). Moreover, smaller community banks tend to rely on correspondent
banks that already have the expertise and established relationships in
foreign countries, thereby lessening credit risk.
Operational Risk. Contingency
plans are crucial to mitigate operational risk for customers who are heavily
engaged in trade. If a U.S. firm enters into a joint venture with a foreign
firm, legal and other considerations also come into play, such as if a
U.S. company’s foreign customers or suppliers abruptly terminate
their relationship or fail to deliver per the contract terms. As appropriate,
lenders can use covenants, differential loan pricing, and other steps
to manage such risks.
Management Risk. Lenders
must consider management risk when customers are heavily involved in foreign
trade to determine whether they have grown into this line of activity
over time and learned lessons along the way or are jumping into a new
line of business with little knowledge of local conditions in the foreign
country. Along with the risks that accompany any new line of business,
firms operating across international borders face legal, shipping and
transportation, communication, financing, quality control, marketing,
and other challenges that may be significantly more complex than the same
issues for domestic firms.
Political Risk. Political
risk refers to instabilities in a foreign government that can lead to
civil unrest, or a suspension of legal rights and recourse that can result
in business disruptions and, occasionally, the seizure of private property.
U.S. lenders can reduce this risk by engaging the services of international
consulting firms that monitor many countries and provide ongoing assessments
of country risk.18
Foreign Exchange Risk. More
broadly, political risk can be related to foreign exchange risk. While
many countries have freely floating exchange rates that can fluctuate
over time, others attempt to peg, or fix, their exchange rate to one or
more major currencies. However, even those arrangements can be difficult
to sustain during periods of market turmoil, which can result in even
more disruptive exchange-rate movements than those experienced by freely
floating currencies. An example of a pronounced currency adjustment that
negatively affected U.S. exporters occurred in 1997 when the Asian currency
crisis caused a sharp realignment of exchange rates between the U.S. dollar
and certain Southeast Asian currencies. Because of international financial
market pressure and a lack of adequate foreign currency reserves, these
Asian nations could not sustain their former currency exchange-rate targets,
and, as a result, the value of their currencies fell abruptly. Although
this drop proved beneficial to U.S. importers doing business with these
countries, it was significantly detrimental to U.S. exporters, as the
local cost of their goods and services rose dramatically (see Chart 5).
In other examples, crises related to international capital markets (such
as Mexico in 1994, Russia in 1998, and Argentina in 1998 and 2000) triggered
turmoil in currency markets and, in some cases, limited the ability of
businesses to move funds across borders.
Chart 5
Shifts in currency exchange rates need not occur abruptly to affect SME
exporters and their lenders, and the shifts need not always have ill effects.
For example, between first quarter 2002 and first quarter 2005 the euro
appreciated relative to the U.S. dollar by almost 49 percent. This decline
in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the euro had the effect of
enhancing the competitive position of U.S. firms that export to the European
market. In 2001, nearly 20 percent of SME exports were sold to European
Union nations (see Chart 6). And American small businesses making items
ranging from forklifts to computer security hardware to toothpaste are
reporting gains in overseas sales in response to the declining dollar.19
Chart 6
Offshore-Outsourcing Risk.
Often, domestic firms may opt to purchase goods and services from a cheaper
foreign source, whether actively engaged in international trade or not.
This practice is referred to as “offshoring,” or “offshore
outsourcing.” Offshoring can be motivated by shifts in exchange
rates that might make certain inputs more costly to acquire in one country
than another. Generally, the more dependent a business is on foreign relationships—including
U.S. firms that have set up production operations overseas, those that
obtain a majority of their inputs from abroad, and those that sell the
bulk of their outputs abroad—the more significant the potential
impact from international trade and transactions on the firm’s risk
profile. In Industrial Distribution’s
58th Annual Survey of Distributor Operations, manufacturers ranked “moving
offshore” fifth as a concern, behind “economic conditions,”
“price competition,” “customers going out of business,”
and “increased operating costs.”20
Import Competition Risk. Finally, community
lenders may be exposed to internationally driven credit risk even when
lending to SMEs that do not engage in global trade. With today’s
trend toward globalization, the reality is that firms that produce and
sell only within U.S. borders are not immune to what is happening in the
rest of the world. Shifts in the U.S. dollar against other currencies
and other economic factors overseas, such as productivity and wage–cost
differentials, may significantly affect the competitiveness of domestically
oriented SMEs. Several industries in the Southeast—including the
apparel, furniture, and cotton industries—are feeling the effects
of cheaper imports that are available in the United States. Such import
competition can harm sales, profits, and the ability of some SMEs to service
existing commercial credit lines.
Conclusion
While the pace of globalization in coming years remains uncertain, the
process itself is unlikely to reverse. Small and mid-sized internationally
active firms can provide numerous and rewarding business opportunities
for community lenders, including issuing international letters of credit,
providing trade financing loans, facilitating or executing foreign currency
transactions and wire transfers, and providing direct operating funds
through traditional commercial loans. But lenders engaged in these activities
also need to be cognizant of the unique risks that arise when their borrower
is a small or mid-sized business active in global trade.
Shayna Olesiuk, Regional Economist 1 Doug Barry, “From Appalachia to India:
U.S. Small Businesses are Going Global,” Business Credit,
June 2000. 2 Office of Trade and Economic Analysis of the International Trade Administration,
“Small and Medium-Sized Exporting Companies, A Statistical Handbook:
Results from the Exporter Data Base,” October 2003. As more recent
data are not available, assuming that the share of SME exports were to
remain at 30 percent, 2004 U.S. SME exports are estimated to have totaled
close to $245 billion, or 30 percent of total U.S. merchandise exports
of $818 billion, based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s origin-of-movement
export series. 5 These three categories are based on the North American Industry Classification
System. The category of “other companies” includes resource
extraction companies, retailers, freight forwarders, engineering firms,
and miscellaneous service companies that often market goods abroad and
act as exporters of record. 6 See note 2. The rankings are based on the North American Industry Classification
System. 7 Gordon Fairclough and Matt Murray, “Small
Banks Expand Their Trade Financing for Exports—Still, Entrepreneurs
Going Global Struggle to Get the Services They Need,” Wall Street
Journal, February 24, 1998. 8 Katie Keuhner-Herbert, “Small Banks
in Northwest Getting Into Trade Finance,” American Banker,
April 4, 2005. 10 Kuehner-Hebert, “Smaller California
Players Gain in Trade Finance,” American Banker, December
19, 2002. 11 Alan Kline, “Small Southern California
Bank Selling Trade Services to Its Peers,” American Banker,
April 20, 2000. 12 The SBA’s Trade Finance Program
Web site (http://www.sba.gov/oit/finance/banks.html)
lists banks participating in this program by state. A link on this site
to the Office of International Trade homepage has additional information
about the program. 13 The Export-Import Bank is a federal agency that extends trade credits
to U.S. companies to facilitate the financing of U.S. exports. 14 Tom Coyle, “International Trade
Financing, Community Banks Thinking Global: How to Play the World Trade
Game,” Community Banker, America’s Community Bankers,
June 1999. 15 U.S. Census Bureau, “Census Bureau Projects Tripling of Hispanic
and Asian Population in 50 Years; Non-Hispanic Whites May Drop to Half
of Total Population,” news release, March 18, 2004. 16 Alan Kline, “Why So Shy about International
Trade Finance?” American Banker, January 13, 2004. 17 Audrey Singer, “The Rise of New Immigrant Gateways,” The
Brookings Institution, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, February
2004; and Economic Outlook Conference, Economy.com, November 2004. 18 Some of the firms that monitor country
risk include: Control Risks Group, http://www.crg.com; Business Monitor
International, http://www.businessmonitor.com;
Countrydata.com and the International Country Risk Guide (by the PRS Group),
http://www.countrydata.com; The
Economist Intelligence Unit, http://www.eiu.com;
and World Markets Research Centre (by Global Insight), http://www.wmrc.com. 19 Mark A. Stein, “Export Opportunities
Aren’t Just for the Big Guy,” New York Times, March
24, 2005. 20 Victoria Fraza Kickham, “Making
Inroads Overseas,” Industrial Distribution, March 2005. |
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| Last Updated 07/06/2005 | insurance-research@fdic.gov | |