Chart 1
A flat or inverted yield curve has historically been associated with a higher frequency of U.S. recession within one to two years.
Date (yyyymm) Recession Indicator: 1 = recession; -1 = no recession Treasury yield curve: 10-year Treasury yield minus effective federal funds rate (percentage points)
195407 -1 1.50
195408 -1 1.14
195409 -1 1.32
195410 -1 1.58
195411 -1 1.65
195412 -1 1.23
195501 -1 1.22
195502 -1 1.36
195503 -1 1.33
195504 -1 1.32
195505 -1 1.33
195506 -1 1.14
195507 -1 1.22
195508 -1 1.01
195509 -1 0.79
195510 -1 0.64
195511 -1 0.54
195512 -1 0.48
195601 -1 0.45
195602 -1 0.34
195603 -1 0.46
195604 -1 0.56
195605 -1 0.32
195606 -1 0.29
195607 -1 0.36
195608 -1 0.60
195609 -1 0.43
195610 -1 0.38
195611 -1 0.61
195612 -1 0.65
195701 -1 0.62
195702 -1 0.34
195703 -1 0.45
195704 -1 0.48
195705 -1 0.60
195706 -1 0.80
195707 -1 0.94
195708 1 0.69
195709 1 0.45
195710 1 0.47
195711 1 0.44
195712 1 0.23
195801 1 0.37
195802 1 1.38
195803 1 1.78
195804 1 1.62
195805 -1 2.29
195806 -1 2.04
195807 -1 2.52
195808 -1 2.01
195809 -1 2.00
195810 -1 2.00
195811 -1 1.47
195812 -1 1.44
195901 -1 1.54
195902 -1 1.53
195903 -1 1.19
195904 -1 1.16
195905 -1 1.41
195906 -1 0.95
195907 -1 0.93
195908 -1 0.93
195909 -1 0.92
195910 -1 0.55
195911 -1 0.53
195912 -1 0.70
196001 -1 0.73
196002 -1 0.52
196003 -1 0.41
196004 1 0.36
196005 1 0.50
196006 1 0.83
196007 1 0.67
196008 1 0.82
196009 1 1.20
196010 1 1.42
196011 1 1.49
196012 1 1.86
196101 1 2.39
196102 1 1.24
196103 -1 1.72
196104 -1 2.29
196105 -1 1.73
196106 -1 2.15
196107 -1 2.75
196108 -1 2.04
196109 -1 2.10
196110 -1 1.66
196111 -1 1.33
196112 -1 1.73
196201 -1 1.93
196202 -1 1.67
196203 -1 1.08
196204 -1 1.06
196205 -1 1.51
196206 -1 1.23
196207 -1 1.30
196208 -1 1.05
196209 -1 1.08
196210 -1 1.03
196211 -1 0.98
196212 -1 0.93
196301 -1 0.91
196302 -1 0.92
196303 -1 0.95
196304 -1 1.07
196305 -1 0.93
196306 -1 1.00
196307 -1 1.00
196308 -1 0.51
196309 -1 0.60
196310 -1 0.61
196311 -1 0.64
196312 -1 0.75
196401 -1 0.69
196402 -1 0.67
196403 -1 0.79
196404 -1 0.76
196405 -1 0.70
196406 -1 0.67
196407 -1 0.77
196408 -1 0.69
196409 -1 0.75
196410 -1 0.83
196411 -1 0.63
196412 -1 0.33
196501 -1 0.29
196502 -1 0.23
196503 -1 0.17
196504 -1 0.11
196505 -1 0.11
196506 -1 0.17
196507 -1 0.11
196508 -1 0.13
196509 -1 0.28
196510 -1 0.27
196511 -1 0.35
196512 -1 0.30
196601 -1 0.19
196602 -1 0.23
196603 -1 0.22
196604 -1 0.08
196605 -1 -0.12
196606 -1 -0.36
196607 -1 -0.28
196608 -1 -0.31
196609 -1 -0.22
196610 -1 -0.52
196611 -1 -0.60
196612 -1 -0.56
196701 -1 -0.36
196702 -1 -0.37
196703 -1 0.01
196704 -1 0.54
196705 -1 0.91
196706 -1 1.04
196707 -1 1.37
196708 -1 1.38
196709 -1 1.31
196710 -1 1.60
196711 -1 1.62
196712 -1 1.19
196801 -1 0.93
196802 -1 0.85
196803 -1 0.69
196804 -1 -0.12
196805 -1 -0.24
196806 -1 -0.35
196807 -1 -0.52
196808 -1 -0.61
196809 -1 -0.32
196810 -1 -0.33
196811 -1 -0.12
196812 -1 0.01
196901 -1 -0.26
196902 -1 -0.42
196903 -1 -0.49
196904 -1 -1.24
196905 -1 -2.35
196906 -1 -2.33
196907 -1 -1.89
196908 -1 -2.50
196909 -1 -1.99
196910 -1 -1.90
196911 -1 -1.71
196912 1 -1.32
197001 1 -1.19
197002 1 -1.74
197003 1 -0.69
197004 1 -0.71
197005 1 -0.03
197006 1 0.24
197007 1 0.25
197008 1 0.92
197009 1 1.10
197010 1 1.13
197011 1 1.24
197012 -1 1.49
197101 -1 2.10
197102 -1 2.39
197103 -1 1.99
197104 -1 1.68
197105 -1 1.76
197106 -1 1.61
197107 -1 1.42
197108 -1 1.02
197109 -1 0.59
197110 -1 0.73
197111 -1 0.90
197112 -1 1.79
197201 -1 2.45
197202 -1 2.79
197203 -1 2.24
197204 -1 2.02
197205 -1 1.86
197206 -1 1.65
197207 -1 1.56
197208 -1 1.41
197209 -1 1.68
197210 -1 1.44
197211 -1 1.22
197212 -1 1.03
197301 -1 0.52
197302 -1 0.06
197303 -1 -0.38
197304 -1 -0.45
197305 -1 -0.99
197306 -1 -1.59
197307 -1 -3.27
197308 -1 -3.10
197309 -1 -3.69
197310 -1 -3.22
197311 1 -3.30
197312 1 -3.21
197401 1 -2.66
197402 1 -2.01
197403 1 -2.14
197404 1 -3.00
197405 1 -3.73
197406 1 -4.39
197407 1 -5.12
197408 1 -3.97
197409 1 -3.30
197410 1 -2.16
197411 1 -1.77
197412 1 -1.10
197501 1 0.37
197502 1 1.15
197503 1 2.19
197504 -1 2.74
197505 -1 2.84
197506 -1 2.31
197507 -1 1.96
197508 -1 2.26
197509 -1 2.19
197510 -1 2.32
197511 -1 2.83
197512 -1 2.80
197601 -1 2.87
197602 -1 3.02
197603 -1 2.89
197604 -1 2.74
197605 -1 2.60
197606 -1 2.38
197607 -1 2.52
197608 -1 2.48
197609 -1 2.34
197610 -1 2.39
197611 -1 2.34
197612 -1 2.22
197701 -1 2.60
197702 -1 2.71
197703 -1 2.77
197704 -1 2.64
197705 -1 2.11
197706 -1 1.89
197707 -1 1.91
197708 -1 1.50
197709 -1 1.20
197710 -1 1.05
197711 -1 1.07
197712 -1 1.13
197801 -1 1.26
197802 -1 1.25
197803 -1 1.25
197804 -1 1.26
197805 -1 0.99
197806 -1 0.86
197807 -1 0.83
197808 -1 0.37
197809 -1 -0.03
197810 -1 -0.32
197811 -1 -0.95
197812 -1 -1.02
197901 -1 -0.97
197902 -1 -0.96
197903 -1 -0.97
197904 -1 -0.83
197905 -1 -0.99
197906 -1 -1.38
197907 -1 -1.52
197908 -1 -1.91
197909 -1 -2.10
197910 -1 -3.47
197911 -1 -2.53
197912 -1 -3.39
198001 1 -3.02
198002 1 -1.72
198003 1 -4.44
198004 1 -6.14
198005 1 -0.80
198006 1 0.31
198007 1 1.22
198008 -1 1.49
198009 -1 0.64
198010 -1 -1.06
198011 -1 -3.17
198012 -1 -6.06
198101 -1 -6.51
198102 -1 -2.74
198103 -1 -1.58
198104 -1 -2.04
198105 -1 -4.42
198106 -1 -5.63
198107 1 -4.76
198108 1 -2.88
198109 1 -0.55
198110 1 0.07
198111 1 0.08
198112 1 1.35
198201 1 1.37
198202 1 -0.35
198203 1 -0.82
198204 1 -1.07
198205 1 -0.83
198206 1 0.15
198207 1 1.36
198208 1 2.93
198209 1 2.03
198210 1 1.20
198211 1 1.35
198212 -1 1.59
198301 -1 1.78
198302 -1 2.21
198303 -1 1.74
198304 -1 1.60
198305 -1 1.75
198306 -1 1.87
198307 -1 2.01
198308 -1 2.29
198309 -1 2.20
198310 -1 2.06
198311 -1 2.35
198312 -1 2.36
198401 -1 2.11
198402 -1 2.25
198403 -1 2.41
198404 -1 2.34
198405 -1 3.09
198406 -1 2.50
198407 -1 2.13
198408 -1 1.08
198409 -1 1.22
198410 -1 2.17
198411 -1 2.14
198412 -1 3.12
198501 -1 3.03
198502 -1 3.01
198503 -1 3.28
198504 -1 3.16
198505 -1 2.88
198506 -1 2.63
198507 -1 2.43
198508 -1 2.43
198509 -1 2.45
198510 -1 2.25
198511 -1 1.73
198512 -1 0.99
198601 -1 1.05
198602 -1 0.84
198603 -1 0.30
198604 -1 0.31
198605 -1 0.86
198606 -1 0.88
198607 -1 0.74
198608 -1 1.00
198609 -1 1.56
198610 -1 1.58
198611 -1 1.21
198612 -1 0.20
198701 -1 0.65
198702 -1 1.15
198703 -1 1.12
198704 -1 1.65
198705 -1 1.76
198706 -1 1.67
198707 -1 1.87
198708 -1 2.03
198709 -1 2.20
198710 -1 2.23
198711 -1 2.17
198712 -1 2.22
198801 -1 1.84
198802 -1 1.63
198803 -1 1.79
198804 -1 1.85
198805 -1 2.00
198806 -1 1.41
198807 -1 1.31
198808 -1 1.25
198809 -1 0.79
198810 -1 0.50
198811 -1 0.61
198812 -1 0.35
198901 -1 -0.02
198902 -1 -0.19
198903 -1 -0.49
198904 -1 -0.66
198905 -1 -0.95
198906 -1 -1.25
198907 -1 -1.22
198908 -1 -0.88
198909 -1 -0.83
198910 -1 -0.83
198911 -1 -0.68
198912 -1 -0.61
199001 -1 -0.02
199002 -1 0.23
199003 -1 0.31
199004 -1 0.53
199005 -1 0.58
199006 -1 0.19
199007 1 0.32
199008 1 0.62
199009 1 0.69
199010 1 0.61
199011 1 0.58
199012 1 0.77
199101 1 1.18
199102 1 1.60
199103 1 1.99
199104 -1 2.13
199105 -1 2.29
199106 -1 2.38
199107 -1 2.45
199108 -1 2.24
199109 -1 2.20
199110 -1 2.32
199111 -1 2.61
199112 -1 2.66
199201 -1 3.00
199202 -1 3.28
199203 -1 3.56
199204 -1 3.75
199205 -1 3.57
199206 -1 3.50
199207 -1 3.59
199208 -1 3.29
199209 -1 3.20
199210 -1 3.49
199211 -1 3.78
199212 -1 3.85
199301 -1 3.58
199302 -1 3.23
199303 -1 2.91
199304 -1 3.01
199305 -1 3.04
199306 -1 2.92
199307 -1 2.75
199308 -1 2.65
199309 -1 2.27
199310 -1 2.34
199311 -1 2.70
199312 -1 2.81
199401 -1 2.70
199402 -1 2.72
199403 -1 3.14
199404 -1 3.41
199405 -1 3.17
199406 -1 2.85
199407 -1 3.04
199408 -1 2.77
199409 -1 2.73
199410 -1 2.98
199411 -1 2.67
199412 -1 2.36
199501 -1 2.25
199502 -1 1.55
199503 -1 1.22
199504 -1 1.01
199505 -1 0.62
199506 -1 0.17
199507 -1 0.43
199508 -1 0.75
199509 -1 0.40
199510 -1 0.28
199511 -1 0.13
199512 -1 0.11
199601 -1 0.09
199602 -1 0.59
199603 -1 0.96
199604 -1 1.29
199605 -1 1.50
199606 -1 1.64
199607 -1 1.47
199608 -1 1.42
199609 -1 1.53
199610 -1 1.29
199611 -1 0.89
199612 -1 1.01
199701 -1 1.33
199702 -1 1.23
199703 -1 1.30
199704 -1 1.38
199705 -1 1.21
199706 -1 0.93
199707 -1 0.70
199708 -1 0.76
199709 -1 0.67
199710 -1 0.53
199711 -1 0.36
199712 -1 0.31
199801 -1 -0.02
199802 -1 0.06
199803 -1 0.16
199804 -1 0.19
199805 -1 0.16
199806 -1 -0.06
199807 -1 -0.08
199808 -1 -0.21
199809 -1 -0.70
199810 -1 -0.54
199811 -1 0.00
199812 -1 -0.03
199901 -1 0.09
199902 -1 0.24
199903 -1 0.42
199904 -1 0.44
199905 -1 0.80
199906 -1 1.14
199907 -1 0.80
199908 -1 0.87
199909 -1 0.70
199910 -1 0.91
199911 -1 0.61
199912 -1 0.98
200001 -1 1.21
200002 -1 0.79
200003 -1 0.41
200004 -1 -0.03
200005 -1 0.17
200006 -1 -0.43
200007 -1 -0.49
200008 -1 -0.67
200009 -1 -0.72
200010 -1 -0.77
200011 -1 -0.79
200012 -1 -1.16
200101 -1 -0.82
200102 -1 -0.39
200103 1 -0.42
200104 1 0.34
200105 1 1.18
200106 1 1.31
200107 1 1.47
200108 1 1.32
200109 1 1.66
200110 1 2.08
200111 1 2.56
200112 -1 3.27
200201 -1 3.31
200202 -1 3.17
200203 -1 3.55
200204 -1 3.46
200205 -1 3.41
200206 -1 3.18
200207 -1 2.92
200208 -1 2.52
200209 -1 2.12
200210 -1 2.19
200211 -1 2.71
200212 -1 2.79
200301 -1 2.81
200302 -1 2.64
200303 -1 2.56
200304 -1 2.70
200305 -1 2.31
200306 -1 2.11
200307 -1 2.97
200308 -1 3.42
200309 -1 3.26
200310 -1 3.28
200311 -1 3.30
200312 -1 3.29
200401 -1 3.15
200402 -1 3.07
200403 -1 2.83
200404 -1 3.35
200405 -1 3.72
200406 -1 3.70
200407 -1 3.24
200408 -1 2.85
200409 -1 2.52
200410 -1 2.34
200411 -1 2.26
200412 -1 2.07
200501 -1 1.94
200502 -1 1.67
200503 -1 1.87
200504 -1 1.55
200505 -1 1.14
200506 -1 0.96
200507 -1 0.92
200508 -1 0.76
200509 -1 0.58
200510 -1 0.68
200511 -1 0.54
200512 -1 0.31
200601 -1 0.14
200601 -1 0.14
Source: FDIC calculations based on Federal Reserve data (via Haver Analytics).