Figure 3
Power Curves for Pricing Methodologies
Cumulative Prcentage of Failures CAMELS CAMELS Downgrade Scorecard Failure-Prediction Baseline
0 0 0 0 0 0
1 3.043478261 20.14760148 15.13828239 17.87709497 1
2 8.260869565 28.63468635 22.41630277 29.74860335 2
3 11.95652174 36.60516605 26.20087336 36.17318436 3
4 12.24637681 42.36162362 30.56768559 42.87709497 4
5 12.46376812 47.01107011 34.49781659 48.60335196 5
6 15.14492754 50.11070111 39.01018923 53.35195531 6
7 20.14492754 52.98892989 40.3202329 57.26256983 7
8 24.63768116 56.16236162 43.52256186 61.17318436 8
9 26.88405797 59.18819188 43.95924309 64.52513966 9
10 29.05797101 61.84501845 45.85152838 67.45810056 10
11 29.20289855 64.57564576 47.01601164 69.97206704 11
12 29.42028986 66.64206642 49.34497817 71.36871508 12
13 29.63768116 68.78228782 50.80058224 72.90502793 13
14 30 70.77490775 52.40174672 74.58100559 14
15 30.07246377 73.06273063 52.40174672 75.55865922 15
16 32.75362319 74.46494465 55.89519651 76.39664804 16
17 36.8115942 75.64575646 56.62299854 77.51396648 17
18 40.72463768 77.63837638 58.07860262 78.2122905 18
19 43.4057971 78.52398524 58.51528384 79.18994413 19
20 44.49275362 79.63099631 60.98981077 80.30726257 20
21 46.5942029 80.22140221 61.42649199 81.00558659 21
22 48.1884058 81.25461255 63.17321689 81.56424581 22
23 48.33333333 82.50922509 65.06550218 82.26256983 23
24 48.47826087 83.24723247 65.79330422 83.37988827 24
25 48.55072464 83.83763838 67.97671033 83.93854749 25
26 48.62318841 84.87084871 70.16011645 84.3575419 26
27 48.76811594 85.68265683 70.59679767 84.4972067 27
28 48.91304348 86.56826568 70.74235808 85.19553073 28
29 48.98550725 87.30627306 71.1790393 85.61452514 29
30 49.05797101 87.67527675 72.63464338 86.03351955 30
31 49.05797101 88.19188192 73.50800582 86.59217877 31
32 51.95652174 88.63468635 73.50800582 86.73184358 32
33 55.2173913 89.15129151 73.65356623 86.87150838 33
34 59.05797101 89.44649446 75.25473071 87.15083799 34
35 61.30434783 89.81549815 76.27365357 87.29050279 35
36 62.53623188 90.25830258 76.41921397 87.5698324 36
37 62.89855072 90.84870849 76.71033479 87.5698324 37
38 63.4057971 90.99630996 78.02037846 87.70949721 38
39 63.55072464 91.36531365 79.33042213 88.96648045 39
40 63.69565217 91.80811808 79.47598253 89.24581006 40
41 63.84057971 92.25092251 79.76710335 89.80446927 41
42 64.05797101 92.6199262 79.91266376 89.94413408 42
43 64.20289855 92.76752768 80.20378457 90.08379888 43
44 64.27536232 92.98892989 81.80494905 90.08379888 44
45 64.42028986 93.35793358 84.42503639 90.36312849 45
46 64.42028986 93.72693727 84.86171761 90.5027933 46
47 65.2173913 94.1697417 84.86171761 90.6424581 47
48 70.50724638 94.39114391 84.86171761 90.92178771 48
49 73.47826087 94.46494465 85.15283843 90.92178771 49
50 75.79710145 94.83394834 87.48180495 91.20111732 50
51 77.39130435 94.83394834 88.20960699 91.48044693 51
52 78.33333333 95.20295203 88.79184862 91.62011173 52
53 78.69565217 95.57195572 89.08296943 91.75977654 53
54 78.84057971 95.7195572 89.08296943 91.75977654 54
55 78.98550725 95.94095941 89.08296943 91.89944134 55
56 78.98550725 96.23616236 89.22852984 92.17877095 56
57 78.98550725 96.3099631 89.22852984 92.17877095 57
58 78.98550725 96.53136531 89.22852984 92.31843575 58
59 79.05797101 96.67896679 89.22852984 92.59776536 59
60 79.13043478 96.75276753 89.22852984 92.87709497 60
61 79.20289855 96.82656827 90.3930131 93.01675978 61
62 79.20289855 96.82656827 90.3930131 93.15642458 62
63 80.72463768 96.97416974 90.82969432 93.43575419 63
64 84.49275362 97.26937269 91.70305677 93.43575419 64
65 86.37681159 97.26937269 92.43085881 93.8547486 65
66 87.39130435 97.34317343 92.86754003 93.8547486 66
67 87.53623188 97.41697417 92.86754003 93.8547486 67
68 87.75362319 97.49077491 93.01310044 93.99441341 68
69 87.82608696 97.71217712 93.01310044 94.13407821 69
70 87.82608696 97.78597786 93.01310044 94.13407821 70
71 87.89855072 97.8597786 93.01310044 94.41340782 71
72 87.89855072 97.8597786 93.01310044 94.55307263 72
73 87.89855072 98.00738007 93.01310044 94.83240223 73
74 87.89855072 98.08118081 93.15866084 95.11173184 74
75 87.89855072 98.15498155 93.15866084 95.11173184 75
76 87.89855072 98.15498155 93.15866084 95.25139665 76
77 87.89855072 98.15498155 94.1775837 95.53072626 77
78 88.84057971 98.15498155 94.90538574 95.53072626 78
79 91.73913043 98.22878229 96.79767103 95.81005587 79
80 93.55072464 98.30258303 97.23435226 96.08938547 80
81 94.71014493 98.30258303 97.67103348 96.22905028 81
82 95 98.37638376 98.54439592 96.36871508 82
83 95.2173913 98.37638376 98.83551674 96.50837989 83
84 95.2173913 98.37638376 99.12663755 96.50837989 84
85 95.2173913 98.4501845 99.56331878 96.64804469 85
86 95.2173913 98.52398524 99.56331878 97.06703911 86
87 95.2173913 98.52398524 99.56331878 97.34636872 87
88 95.2173913 98.59778598 99.56331878 97.34636872 88
89 95.2173913 98.67158672 99.56331878 97.48603352 89
90 95.2173913 98.81918819 99.56331878 97.48603352 90
91 95.2173913 98.89298893 99.56331878 97.48603352 91
92 96.08695652 98.89298893 99.56331878 97.62569832 92
93 98.55072464 98.96678967 99.56331878 97.76536313 93
94 100 98.96678967 99.56331878 97.90502793 94
95 100 99.11439114 99.56331878 98.04469274 95
96 100 99.11439114 99.70887918 98.46368715 96
97 100 99.26199262 99.70887918 98.74301676 97
98 100 99.26199262 99.85443959 99.30167598 98
99 100 99.33579336 99.85443959 99.30167598 99
100 100 100 100 100 100