Figure 2
Relationship between Probability of Failure and Actual Failures within Five Years of Failure-Probability Calculation
Year-end all FDIC insured banks
1A1 Lowest Expected Rate of Failure 1A2 1A3 Highest Expected Rate of Failure
1985 0.46 0.85 7.05
1986 0.48 0.45 5.48
1987 0.53 0.53 3.58
1988 0.30 0.30 2.54
1989 0.19 0.19 1.90
1990 0.04 0.00 0.67
1991 0.04 0.00 0.27
1992 0.00 0.00 0.09
1993 0.04 0.00 0.13
1994 0.08 0.04 0.08
1995 0.00 0.17 0.17
1996 0.04 0.09 0.04
1997 0.05 0.09 0.14