| Figure 1 Relationship between Probability of Failure and Actual CAMELS Downgrades within Five Years of Failure-Probability Calculation |
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| Year-end | 1A1 Lowest Expected Rate of Failure | 1A2 | 1A3 Highest Expected Rate of Failure |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1985 | 14.00 | 23.36 | 51.01 |
| 1986 | 13.95 | 22.04 | 49.59 |
| 1987 | 12.23 | 21.50 | 47.51 |
| 1988 | 9.57 | 18.23 | 43.09 |
| 1989 | 9.22 | 14.34 | 39.39 |
| 1990 | 7.53 | 9.53 | 30.05 |
| 1991 | 4.79 | 6.78 | 16.33 |
| 1992 | 3.49 | 4.63 | 9.95 |
| 1993 | 4.53 | 5.20 | 9.77 |
| 1994 | 4.63 | 5.94 | 10.61 |
| 1995 | 4.98 | 6.91 | 13.99 |
| 1996 | 6.34 | 8.68 | 15.06 |
| 1997 | 7.19 | 9.29 | 17.52 |